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SOUTH WEST JOB FORECASTS NOW NEED TO BE “TORN UP,” SAYS KING STURGE EXPERT

Region‘s economic recovery is 2-3 years away – but it is better placed than most, according to firm‘s head of research  

Previous forecasts that more than 60,000 new jobs will be created in the South West in the five years to 2011 will have to be “torn up” as the region enters recession, according to a leading property expert.

But Dr Angus McIntosh, Head of Research at King Sturge, the South West‘s largest firm of international property consultants, told an industry audience in Plymouth that the region was better-placed for recovery than the likes of London because its economy is less reliant on the financial services sector.

Dr McIntosh was speaking at King Sturge‘s annual South West Property Review and Forecast event, held at Tamar Science Park.

“At this event last year I quoted figures which forecast that 64,000 new jobs would be created in the South West between 2006 and 2011,” he said.

“These figures now look totally unrealistic and basically need to be torn up, in particular the projection that 44,000 of those new jobs will come in the financial and business services sectors.

“Unfortunately the situation is so volatile at the moment, with jobs being lost in increasing numbers, it is impossible to say with confidence what the real figure may be.

“We will see some new jobs in the South West, perhaps half the number

I forecast last year, but there will certainly be considerable job losses in 2009 and any new jobs will not really start coming through until 2011.”

Dr McIntosh also told the audience that while economic growth in the region would fall 1 per cent next year, this compares to a 1.3 per cent fall across the UK as a whole. And while South West house prices would fall by around 11 per cent in 2009, nationally it will be 15 per cent and for Northern Ireland,17 per cent.

“My view is that this will be a very slow recovery, perhaps two to three years, although this region will not suffer as much as others because it is less dependent on financial services,” he commented.

“Likewise we have probably seen the worst of the house price slump this year rather than next, and of particular relevance to the South West, there is some good news in that more people will be looking to take their holidays in the UK rather than going abroad. Whether they will have money to spend here, however, is another question.

“One thing is for certain – there are not many more manufacturing jobs to be lost, so the jobs will be disappearing in the call centres and other service industries.”

Dr McIntosh added that commercial capital values would fall by an average of 20 per cent this year, and that more commercial buildings will become vacant, at a time when the Government has introduced an “empty rates tax.”

He commented: “It seems most unhelpful, when small businesses in particular are starting to suffer financially, and have empty buildings, that they will have to pay even more tax.”

ENDS               14th November 2008

For further information please contact Neil Fraser, Sturgess Van Damme, on 01275 349011 or email neil@sturgessvandamme.co.uk